The recent swings in oil and jet-fuel prices were a reminder of how exposed aviation still is to a single commodity. The industry’s long-term answer is to burn less of it — through sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and, further out, hydrogen and electric propulsion. But between the headlines and the hangar, how close is that future really? For operators planning budgets — and, just as importantly, teams — the honest answer matters.
SAF is flying today, but it remains a sliver of supply. Global SAF production reached about 1 million tonnes in 2024 — double the year before, yet still only around 0.3% of the jet fuel used worldwide, according to IATA. Output rose to roughly 0.6% of supply in 2025, and IATA has actually revised its near-term projections downward, noting that growth is slowing rather than accelerating. SAF also remains, in IATA’s words, several times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.
None of that makes SAF a footnote. The same industry roadmaps expect it to deliver the majority — roughly two-thirds — of aviation’s path to net-zero emissions by 2050. It is the primary lever. It is just a lever being pulled slowly.
Regulation is pushing harder than the market is producing. Under the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules, which took effect in January 2025, fuel supplied at EU airports must be at least 2% SAF now, rising to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. In the United States, the SAF Grand Challenge targets 3 billion gallons of annual production by 2030 and 35 billion by 2050 — the latter roughly equal to all projected U.S. jet-fuel demand.
Those are steep curves set against production still under 1% of use. The gap between what the mandates require and what the supply chain can deliver is the central tension of the transition — and it is where cost, compliance, and planning pressure will concentrate over the next decade.
The more radical alternatives are further from the flight line. Airbus adjusted its ZEROe hydrogen-aircraft roadmap in 2025, pushing its timeline back and narrowing its technology focus; electric aircraft remain largely experimental and limited to small, short-range designs. Industry net-zero modeling reflects this: new propulsion technologies such as hydrogen and electric are expected to contribute only about 13% of aviation’s 2050 emissions cuts, versus roughly 65% from SAF. For the foreseeable future, SAF — not a new kind of airplane — is the workhorse of decarbonization.
Here is the part that tends to get overlooked in the fuel conversation: changing how aircraft are powered changes who operators need to hire. Business aviation has committed to net-zero carbon by 2050, and meeting that commitment is not only a procurement problem — it is a workforce one.
As the transition proceeds, demand grows for skills that barely existed on aviation org charts a decade ago: fuel supply-chain and logistics specialists who understand SAF sourcing and “book-and-claim” accounting; sustainability and compliance staff who can track and report against mandates like ReFuelEU; procurement leaders fluent in energy markets; and, over a longer horizon, maintenance and engineering talent trained on new propulsion systems. These sit alongside — not instead of — the persistent need for pilots and A&P (airframe and powerplant) mechanics.
Operators that treat sustainability as a capability to staff, rather than a box to check, will be the ones ready when mandates tighten and customers begin asking harder questions about emissions.
Alternative fuels are coming, but gradually — SAF is scaling slowly, hydrogen and electric are years out, and mandates keep climbing regardless. The operators who navigate it best will plan on two fronts at once: a realistic fuel strategy, and the workforce to execute it. One without the other leaves you exposed.
Building a team that can carry an operation through the energy transition is exactly the kind of forward planning we help with. If you are thinking about the capabilities your operation will need over the next few years, Aviation Recruiting can help you plan and build that bench. Start a conversation with our team. (link “Start a conversation with our team” to https://aviationrecruiting.net/contact/)
Sources
National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), business aviation net-zero-by-2050 commitment, February 24, 2025. https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/environmental-sustainability/
IATA, “Disappointingly Slow Growth in SAF Production,” Press Release, December 10, 2024, and SAF Fact Sheet, June 2026. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/sustainable-aviation-fuels/
European Commission, ReFuelEU Aviation — Regulation (EU) 2023/2405 (in effect January 1, 2025). https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/air/environment/refueleu-aviation_en
U.S. Department of Energy, “Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge,” updated March 25, 2026. https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuel-grand-challenge
Airbus, “Airbus showcases hydrogen aircraft technologies” (revised ZEROe roadmap), March 25, 2025. https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom
IATA, “Fly Net Zero” (net-zero 2050 roadmap), 2026. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/flynetzero/